Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

A lot of story and press coverage surrounding this group, especially Cam Newton.  Hopefully I can help to set the record straight(er).

Cam Newton QB Auburn
A controversial figure well before he even declared for the draft, he's been a part of 3 National Championship winning programs in 3 years starting at QB for the last two (Blinn JC and Auburn).  No doubting the guy is a winner, but will the football gods keep him in their good graces?

Pros- Athleticism is the nauseatingly used catchphrase when describing Newton, but thats because its true.  He has incredible pocket awareness coupled with elusiveness, think a mix between Mike Vick and Big Ben in terms of how hard he is to sack.  He has the arm strength to make all NFL throws, yes including the deep out.  He also has some proven checkdown to his game but he can make the right decision; throwing only 7 picks in 280 attempts.  But most important about Newton, is he is at his absolute best in the biggest moments, he gets better the more is on the line.

Cons- Newton's offense at Auburn was very simple, I heard somewhere that Auburn's offensive coordinator only had 8 plays installed.  It won them a Championship but the simple is better philosophy of football hasn't made it to the NFL yet, Newton will probably have the steepest learning curve in terms of picking up an NFL offense of any of the QBs.  Newton wasn't asked to do a whole lot in the passing department so nobody really knows what he can and can't do, its a lot of risk for a top draft pick.

Blaine Gabbert QB Mizzou
Blaine Gabbert is lauded by draftniks and Newton haters as the safest QB pick in the draft, and indeed he is, but that's because he's a damned good QB. He is also said to have a photographic memory which even if it were an exaggeration, that means he will be able to mentally handle a large and comprehensive NFL playbook.

Pros- Gabbert can make good decisions and hard throws.  One key importance to his game is he can always fit the ball through a window no matter how tight, and they were tight.  Gabbert also does a quick job of reading blitzes and throwing to the hot read this and his ability to throw the ball through open passing lanes will give him an advantage in the zone blitz happy NFL.

Cons- Gabbert, like Newton will have a steep learning curve transitioning to the NFL.  He played in an offense that almost exclusively utilized 5 WR sets.  He will also have to learn how to play 5 and 7 step drops as his offense was hinged upon 3 step drops and screens.  As a result of how he's played the last 3 years, his accuracy falls sharply the deeper he throws the ball.  He also needs to learn how to identify his receiver and make a throw quicker as he was sacked a too often 23 times his senior year (although that number is probably stretched due to the high number of empty sets and little pass protection.

Christian Ponder QB Florida State
Ponder was a 3 year starter for the Seminoles but unfortunately had a rough senior season.

Pros- Played in an offense that consistently asked him to throw to NFL style passing routes.  He does a good job of finding the open man and attacking weak areas of coverage, especially downfield.  Hard nosed guy who pops up after contact.

Cons- Plays streaky, sometimes great and sometimes pretty average.  Gets caught playing with little urgency and is guilty of throwing a ball that will get his receiver clobbered.  Will get caught locked onto a single receiver and didn't get better at checking out of bad matchups in his senior year.  Also not a physically special QB.


Ryan Mallett QB Arkansas
Another controversial draft prospect.  Ryan Mallett has been accused of damn near everything from academic misconduct to showing up drunk/high to team meeting.  Not many people know the real truth and trust me, NFL front offices are trying to get down to the bottom of it to figure out whether he's worth a roster spot.

Pros- Is the best and most polished passer in the draft.  He made big league throws against very tough competition in the SEC.  Knows when to put mustard on the ball and when to put some touch on it with a savvy not normally seen from college passers.  Regularly places the ball in a spot where only his receiver can catch it, and he shows flashes of mobility evading the pass rush and making things happen with his legs.

Cons- Character is the only con for Mallett, in fact if not for character concerns Mallett would be a lock for the #1 overall draft selection.  Not only is the question will he be able to handle himself making a million dollars a season, but whether he can command the respect of his teammates and manage the responsibilities of a signal caller on football's biggest stage.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

NFL Draft: Cornerbacks

People have already said a lot about Peterson, Amukumara, Smith, and Harris so I'll give you my 4 corners who I don't think have received enough love and who will add very talented depth to a needing NFL team.

Second Tier Corners
Aaron Williams CB Texas

Started on the right side for Texas in his Junior season, played all 3 years for the Longhorns.

Pros- Great footwork and feel for the game.  Makes the right reads and positions his body in the best place to make a play.  Plays very physical against wideouts and is an eager and competent tackler.  Makes good breaks on the ball and contests every throw.  Good in press coverage especially in the redzone.

Cons- The big question mark is whether he can defend the deep ball in the NFL as he had a hard enough time doing it in the Big 12.  Its not that he's slow, but he loses speed when turning and is a long strider so he'll need to correct that part of his game, otherwise could make the transition to Cover Safety like Antrel Rolle and Malcolm Jenkins.

Ras-I Dowling CB Virginia
A tall corner in the mold of Antonio Cromartie (except he likes to tackle).  Played all 4 years at University of Virginia.

Pros- The guy is a very accomplished corner.  Asked to play in a lot of man and deep coverage in college, he is capable of adjusting his game using different techniques.  Plays the deep ball well and shows good pop when tackling.  Has potential to fit into any NFL scheme.

Cons- Will get upright a little too quickly and allows too large a cushion vs. underneath throws.  Could do a better job pattern reading and picking up a man who runs into his zone.  Not a guy who has proven excellent awareness, but that's not to say its bad.

Sleepers
Shareece Wright CB USC
An old head over at Southern Cal, has a very interesting career-- missing a year to academic eligibility and then another to injury.

Pros- Great tackler who loves contact.  Spent 5 years in USC's heavy cover 2 scheme and shows an outstanding feel for it.  Makes excellent reads against the run and pass alike.  Competent press man who shows some blitzing skills.  Also makes some heads up plays that proves he has a great understanding of football.

Cons- He really only has 1 year of film under his belt and likewise 1 year of real college football.  Really a project guy who will need someone in the NFL to realize he has the best years of football in front of him.

Ryan Hill CB Miami-FL
Another 5 year corner, played boundary corner and has experience on all sides of the ball as he took snaps as a wide-receiver earlier in his career and played intermittently as return man for the Hurricanes.

Pros- High motor guy who never takes a play off.  Runs well with wideouts and stays in phase with deep routes.  Shows violent hitting ability not characteristic of return men, and has no qualms with mixing it up.  Could be a valuable special teams cover man.

Cons- Like Wright he doesn't have a lot of film and an injury question mark on his resume.  But every team is in need of a high effort versatile player like Hill who just needs some polish and consistency at the same position.

NFL Draft: Offensive Line

We'll go on a lightning round and evaluate this years top crop of offensive linemen.

Tyron Smith OT USC
Freakish athlete, has an odd background as he's played right tackle in college but projects as a left tackle in the NFL, I have never seen that switch and it could be an issue for him, adjusting his game to the opposite side, but he's physically capable.

Pros- Can really move and won't get out maneuvered in pass blocking situations.  Plays with an outstanding base and really breaks down on contact, extends his arm and gives defensive ends fits.  He is really a defensive ends worse nightmare as he is just as athletic and stronger, does a great job of mauling out 9 techniques.

Cons- Doesn't do a great job of blocking down and playing physical on the inside.  Doesn't have a killer instinct in the open field and tends to play pattycake when he gets to the second level.

Gabe Carimi OT Wisconsin
Tough guy who plays football like he loves the game.  Lead Wisconsin's heavy and effective running attack.

Pros- The consummate mauler, plays nasty and all out.  Doesn't have a problem muscling around defensive linemen and when he gets to the second level he gets there with an attitude.  Great power and also great awareness of where he needs to be.

Cons- Gets over-extended often in the pass game, will struggle against even just okay rushers.  Doesn't have the greatest footwork going backwards and will click his heels and lose his base.  Probably won't get drafted by a heavy passing team and will be moved to the right side.

Stefen Wisniewski C Penn State
NFL Pedigree guy, who is considered by many as the most polished offensive linemen in the draft.

Pros- Not a guy who will get overpowered in the inside, played strong against top competition in college.  Has versatility and can play both center and guard.  Keeps a good base in the pass game and doesn't get beat with a speed rush from defensive tackles.

Cons- Isn't elite in many aspects, doesn't have the strength to go 1 on 1 with the Casey Hamptons but still a really solid player. 

Clint Boling G Georgia
Big bruiser who isn't high on the draftniks radar, but might be one of the better prospects in the entire draft.

Pros- Overpowers interior defensive linemen who don't have good get-offs. Doesn't over extend himself often and does a very good job in pass protection.  Gets to the second level and punished linebackers. 

Cons- Will lose his man if he's too quick, needs to get better at bringing his hips when he blocks down.

Monday, April 11, 2011

NFL: Kickoff Rule Changes

Much is being made of this topic and the resulting schematic and personnel changes it will bring about in the NFL.  As with all NFL rules changes, the game will adapt and coordinators who can tinker and show creativity will thrive where the guys stuck in the past will soon be without a paycheck.

Let's look at the the facts before we make too many conjectures.

1. Kickoff moved up to the 35 yard line.
2. Coverage Team cannot line up more than 5 yards behind the ball.

Previously the rule changes proposed would extend the touchback to the 25 yard line and get rid of two-man wedges all together.  But neither of these were ultimately provisioned.

So will these rules really devalue return men in the NFL? Will we see less exciting kick returns? The answers are yes and no.

Teams with strong leg kickers will likely kick the ball out of the back of the endzone more often.  Especially because the coverage team will be slightly later than usual due to the 5 yard rule.

But those teams without elite kickers who can consistently kick out of the back of the endzone won't allow for the same strategy.  Also slower teams, i.e.. teams with limited quality special teams depth will require a strong legged kicker otherwise we might see their coverage weaknesses exposed.

In the NFL elite coverage units can get downfield and reach the 20 yardline in 5 seconds flat.  This of course is with the head start that has been removed from the rules.  Now it will take probably a half second longer to reach the twenty due to the rule changes.  This means that the kicker better A) kick the ball out of the back of the endzone, or B) kick the ball high and have it land atleast past the 5.  But it must be high and take almost 3 seconds to land.

Inexperienced kickers attempting a deep kick who line drive the ball short will put their coverage team in a bad position because they're half a second later than usual.  Environmental factors like wind, cold, and barometric pressure (believe it or not) all have an effect on how long the ball flies, so unless your team has Sebastian Janikowski or Rob Bironas, kickoffs won't be such a cinch this season, contrary to popular belief.

Friday, April 8, 2011

NFL Draft: Linebackers

Linebackers are among my favorite position group to anticipate playing in the NFL.  To be an NFL prospect at LB you need a mean streak, freakish athletic skills, size and, strength-- a very exciting combination.  The Linebackers in this draft are no exception.

Blue Chips
Von Miller OLB-Texas A&M
Von Miller is a freakish athlete who unleashed himself in every Big 12 backfield this past season.  He is rightly so the numero uno Linebacker prospect in this years draft.

Pros-Incredibly athletic, uses his speed and quickness to avoid blocks and also does a great job of using his hands to create separation from lineman.  Has incredible burst off the line and in-and-out of his breaks.  Deceptively good in coverage.

Cons-Most media guys seem to think Von Miller is a rush linebacker in the same mold as Clay Matthews or James Harrison... he's not, and if put in that position he will have a very difficult time anchoring against the run in the NFL.  Miller isn't strong enough to bull rush and only has one reliable pass rush move-the speed rush.  If put in the right position, off the line and asked to blitz occasionally, he will be a star.

Akeem Ayers OLB-UCLA
Ayers is the prototype 3-4 OLB, and was voted first team all PAC-10 while starting at UCLA for 3 years.

Pros-Has the size and strength to mix it up with tackles in the NFL.  Will be a very valuable player setting the edge and anchoring against the run.  Is more athletic than given credit for and will come up with some amazing plays every now and then.

Cons-Won't always play with maximum effort and when his effort wanes so does his technique.  Not a guy who can be asked to change directions and play in space.  He also did not do a great job of rushing the passer despite playing rush end in nickel packages.  Will need to improve in order to stay on the field for 3rd downs at the next level.

Sleepers
Colin McCarthy MLB-Miami
Team Captain racked up over 300 tackles in his time at Miami.  A super senior who exploded into the spotlight his last year in college.

Pros-Hustle player with an energizer battery.  Won't stop running to the ball.  Has great eyes and diagnoses the play quickly.  Does a good job in pass coverage leaning on TEs and has an uncanny ability to constantly be around the ball.

Cons-Struggles to break down in space and plays a little too reckless at times.  Doesn't keep himself very clean on the inside and will occasionally be completely blocked.  Needs to work on the finer techniques of the game like swatting the ball and keeping an arm and leg free when taking on blocks.

Brian Rolle MLB-Ohio State
Another team captain who played for 4 years at Ohio State.  Will likely be asked to move to outside linebacker in the NFL.

Pros-Rolle is fast and physical, he shows plenty moxy despite his small size to play in a phone booth and make blockers miss.  He never takes a play off and takes proper angles to the ball carrier.  Breaks on throws and is skilled in pass coverage.

Cons-The knock on Rolle is his stature.  5'10'' 220lbs doesn't sound like an NFL linebacker.  But he can play and if put in the right situation he can shine.  Needs to do a better job of reading his keys and not dance around blocks in the NFL.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Split Field Coverages: Defending Trips

Split Field Coverages are becoming more and more widely used in football.  They have been a permanent fixture in the Pro game, and with any Cover 4 based defense in college, but they are gaining attention with high school coaches.

There a multiple reasons to play Split Field coverages.  The first is you always keep a safety to either side of the ball.  Many single high teams roll a safety to one side and lose a safety on the other.  Split Field coverages allow you to keep equal run support to each side.  

This of course leaves you with coverage problems, the most famous head scratcher being 3 WR sides.

Lets look at how to defend them.

Quarters:
This is a true quarters look where the DB's are playing deep.  In this case the FS is reading vertical release from 3 to 2, and the CB is reading the same from 2 to 1.  The Linebackers are each executing the same technique walling off the receivers from getting good vertical releases.

2-Read:
Here we have the favorite quarters concept 2-read defending the #2 and #1 receivers.  By alignment the CB takes away the bubble and speed out from #2. SS reads vertical release from 2 to 1.  OLB plays curl/flat.  With this coverage the FS plays a backside poach on a vertical release from #3.  

Man/Zone Combo:
This is a concept you could play with your 5 DB defenses (3-3-5 or 4-2-5).  Match your $ (who should be one of your better athletes) up on the #3 cancelling him out.  And play 2-read on the remaining wideouts.  You could also play a Cover 3 concept out of this combo look if you're feeling confident.

Cover 2
Cover 2 is an easy alignment change-up to your Cover 4 coverage although it will take time teaching new techniques.  Still covers all 3 potential verticals with your Middle backer playing high hole, and it can be valuable if they like to run flood/bubble.  CB plays squat technique and SS midpoints vertical routes.


Inverted Cover 2 Mike High Hole
This is similar to a cover 3 look, except you don't have your backside safety bailing to the middle of the field.  This is an excellent edge-run defense that floods the passing strength.  Middle backer plays high hole like in Cover 2 keying #3 vertical.  OLB plays hook.  SS comes down on #2 and plays a hard SCF.  CB midpoints #2 and #1.


Stay tuned for more football scheme analysis.

NFL Draft: The Talent Pool

Lets take a position by position look at NFL prospects starting with Running Backs.

This year we don't have marquee backs coming out of college (think Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden) but we do have backs who will be pretty solid without the boom or bust risk.

Feature Backs 
Mark Ingram Alabama
When we talk about this year's draft we have to talk about Mark Ingram.  This guy won a Heisman trophy as a sophomore and a National Championship in the same year.  Dude is a winner, there is no doubt about it.

Pros- A gritty back, isn't afraid of contact, and understands how to wiggle out of arm tackles.  Can pass protect and do the little things right, never fumbled once in over 600 touches at Alabama.  The best thing about Ingram is his personality, he will NEVER get in trouble on or off the football field, makes for an attractive choice.

Cons- caught the injury bug in his last season so durability is the hackneyed complaint with Ingram.  He also might not be athletic enough to consistently shake off tacklers at the next level.

Ryan Williams Virginia Tech
Was feature back for the Virgina Tech Hokies, ran for 30 TD's and over 2000 yards in his time there.

Pros-Can succeed in any blocking scheme.  Even though some draft-heads think he's a zone type of runner, a guy who can get into gear quickly and see the hole will fit into any approach to running the football.  Also did not fumble once in college.

Cons-Not polished in any part of the passing game so will need to improve in pass protection and route running to stay on the field come 3rd down.  Tends to disappear against big time opponents.  Like Ingram, he too caught the injury bug his senior season.

Sleepers
Jordan Todman Connecticut
3 year player for UConn Huskies.  Todman won't get the love that other backs from the power conferences will, but he's my pick to have the best NFL career out of all of the 2011 RB prospects.

Pros-Incredible durability, playing 3 years, 650+ touches, and 3000 yards without an injury is impressive.  Dude has swag, and he isn't shy about it.  He ground out 130 yds against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and ran a 4.4 flat 40 yard dash at the combine.

Cons-People will undeservedly fault him for playing in the Big East and they will also rightly want to see more dynamic play from him in the pass game.

Noel Devine West Virginia
Consumate athlete for West Virginia who played for 4 years and dazzled every second.

Pros-Could have started at WR for the Mountaineers he is that athletic. Never takes a big hit and stays patient while running.  He is a savvy runner who can contribute on special teams and in the passing game.

Cons-Size is a big question mark, but he was the wiggle to keep longevity in the NFL (see Warrick Dunn).  Mainly ran out of the spread and zone-read game in college and will have to adjust to a pro-style offense.